Dothan Real Estate Market Predictions for 2008
December 27th, 2007 - Categories: Dothan area Real Estate Market information, Inside the numbers
By: Charles Woodall
Managing Broker
http://www.dothanhomesearch.com
This is the time of year for resolutions and predictions. The resolutions will come in the next day or two, so today we will discuss what 2008 holds for the real estate market in and around the Dothan, Alabama area.
I am not really going out on a limb with any bold predictions, and I refuse to beat the ‘everything is wonderful’ drum, as the Noah Rosenblatt points out the National Association of REALTORS tends to do. What you see below is my best guess only. Keep in mind that all statistics come from the Dothan Multiple Listing Service, and are deemed reliable but not guaranteed. These numbers do not include sales not included in MLS statistics, such as homes sold by the owner and some new construction. Your results may vary.
Home sales - down in 2008
The final numbers for 2007 are a week or so away, but we will end 2007 with around 1260 homes sold, down about 12% from last years record number and the lowest level in three years . My prediction for 2008 is sales will fall another 10%, down to near 2003 and 2004 levels.
Homes on the market - steady
The number of homes for sale in Dothan, currently near an all-time high, will likely rise a little more in the short term as sellers waiting for the holidays to be over or for spring time enter the market. Expect this number to stay between 850 - 950 most of the year. A buyer’s market remains in effect as a result.
Mortgage rates - steady
This one is fairly easy to predict. All the signs point to mortgage rates staying around 6% for the foreseeable future. I think there will be less than .5% difference in rates from the first of 2008 until the end of the year.
Foreclosures - upward trend
We have yet to see any measurable rise in foreclosures here in the Dothan real estate market. There will likely be an increase in 2008, simply because there is a significant increase nationwide and it is unrealistic to think Dothan won’t be effected. How significant an increase is yet to be seen, but it is my opinion that we won?t see the drastic rise some other areas of the country are seeing.
New construction - down
Until some pent up inventory is sold, especially in the upper end market (over $300,000), new home starts will continue to be low. Unfortunately, I don”t think there will be much relief for builders in 2008 in any price range.
Median price - down
There is really no way to avoid this one. Sales have slowed while the number of homes on the market has risen. The most basic rule of economics is supply and demand. When supply goes up and demand falls, so do prices. After a rise of almost 20% in the past three record years, a leveling off of median price is certainly due.
What do you see happening in the Dothan real estate market in 2008? Chime in by commenting below!
Possibly Related Posts
- Monday Market Snapshot
- 2008 Dothan real estate market predictions - Mid-year update
- Dothan foreclosure numbers going up?
This entry was posted on Thursday, December 27th, 2007 at 10:50 am and is filed under Dothan area Real Estate Market information, Inside the numbers. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
Charles- You really have a true buyers market. While sales are down- don’t you think it’s a good time to buy if you are a first time buyer? I know it’s a little scary for people- but if you are going to stay in your next home for a few years- maybe it’s just the right time to buy one of those homes on the market.
Charles- contrary to what so many buyers and sellers expect from us, no one has a crystal ball. I think you’ve done a fine, fair job of guesstimating what you might see in the Dothan area in 2008.
I am not too familiar with the Dothan real estate market, but from reading your blog, it appears similar to mine in Pensacola. It looks like a very fair assessment to me. I see similar things happening in my market. Thanks for an honest assessment, and not the same old NAR line that everything is going to turn around any minute now.
I absolutely agree Mary! We are often accused of ‘toeing the company line’ when we say it is a great time to buy, but the truth is mortgage rates are historically low, the selection has rarely been better, and real estate is still a very good long term investment.
Sandi and Karl, thanks for your comments!
As always, All real estate is local. There are always variations from one market to another.According to NAR home sales and home prices will be very similar in 2008 as in 2007.
Charles - You have presented a realistic view of Dothan real estate market to it’s residents in a clear concise manner, without any hype. I have to agree with the others in saying, a buyer’s market like we are experiencing now is a great time to buy, especially in areas where homes were never subject to an overinflated value.
[…] Speaking of real estate, Charles Woodall has some Real Estate Market Predictions for Dothan, Alabama – and they’re not much different from the ones I have for Anne Arundel County, Maryland. […]
Excellent information, I’m sure appreciated by your local market. In fact, I linked to it today for my Crofton blog.
[…] We’ll see how it plays out. As I stated in my predictions for the real estate market here in Dothan for 2008, I don’t think we can avoid an increase in foreclosures this year. Tags: foreclosure, Dothan […]
[…] If you missed our outlook for the 2008 Dothan real estate market, you can take a look by clicking here. Tags: dothan+homes+sold, dothan+median+price […]
[…] got as low as 450 in 2005. It is amazing to see how this market has turned in under three years. I don’t expect us to hit the 1000 homes mark, but it could happen. As I posted last week, sales have remained steady, so inventory should do the […]
[…] in late December we looked at some predictions for what the Dothan real estate market may do in 2008. Since the year is halfway gone, now is a good time to look to see how our predictions are […]