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By: Charles Woodall
Managing Broker

http://www.dothanhomesearch.com

Back in late December we looked at some predictions for what the Dothan real estate market may do in 2008. Since the year is halfway gone, now is a good time to look to see how our predictions are faring.

Home sales

Prediction – down 10% from 2007
Actual year-to-date – down 12.4% in units, 9.1% in volume

Nothing surprising about this stat. Pending sales are strong, so I’ll stick to this prediction.

Homes on the market

Prediction – remain steady between 850 – 950 units
Actual – inventory today is 956 single family homes

I may have underestimated this one by a bit. Inventory in other areas of the country is steady to falling, so I am going to revise my prediction and say that the number of homes for sale in the Dothan area will hover between 920 and 980 for the rest of 2008.

Mortgage rates

Prediction – steady around 6% with less than 0.5% fluctuation
Actual – today’s rates are around 6.25%

The only change I will make here is to say that there is a far greater likelihood of rates being closer to 6.5% at the end of the year than under 6%.

Foreclosures

Prediction – upward trend
Actual – steady to slightly up

Up until May, the number of homes in foreclosure in Alabama had dropped significantly. Then June came and they jumped 22%. The upward trend will likely continue, if for no other reason than the overall weak economy.

New Construction

Prediction – housing starts in Dothan down
Actual – housing starts in Dothan down

We nailed this one. There were 178 residential new construction permits issued in the first six months of 2007, compared to 133 so far in 2008.

Median Price

Prediction – down
Actual – no change

The median price of homes sold in the Dothan area in 2007 was $135,000, and the median price so far in 2008 is exactly the same. I still think we will end the year with a slightly lower median.

The overall Dothan real estate market is sound, especially when compared to some other markets around the country. Expect the remainder of 2008 to be much the same as the first half.

What are your thoughts on the real estate market here in the Dothan area? What do you see happening in the future? Chime in by commenting below!

Tags: Dothan+real+estate+market

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By: Charles Woodall
Managing Broker

http://www.dothanhomesearch.com

Looking like it might be a wet weekend, so here’s some interesting links to help get you through.

Wachovia eliminates “Pick-your-payment” loans, eliminating all loans that can lead to higher balances over time.

U.S. Home Construction hits 17 year low - Goes along with our most recent Dothan new homes and construction report

Statewide Home Sales down 23% -  Home sales in Dothan are not down quite as much. Look for a mid-year Dothan real estate market update early next week.

Economists say Alabama economy not following national trend because it will grow by 1/2 of one percent in 2008.

Dothan City School Board approves new zoning plan - lots of changes coming…we’ll cover them on Wednesday on next week

New bicycle and walking trails coming to Dothan

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By: Charles Woodall
Managing Broker

http://www.dothanhomesearch.com

Here are a few links to some interesting news from the week. Have a great weekend!

Birmingham Business Journal - New home starts hit 17-year low - Similar stats here in Dothan from earlier this week, although not quite so drastic

Dothan Eagle - Permitting process set to begin for reservoir - The long discussed drinking water reservoir along the Little Choctawhatchee River is moving to the permitting stage.

Birmingham News - City of Birmingham to sue mortgage companies - This isn’t the first lawsuit in the country, but I think it is the first in Alabama where a city is suing mortgage companies over the mess left behind by high numbers of foreclosed properties.

Dothan Eagle - Houston County Board of Education buys land for Rehobeth School - continuing a policy of buying land adjacent to county schools whenever it becomes available, anticipating future growth

Dothan Eagle - Two new magnet schools proposed in Dothan - The Dothan City Board of Education will be discussing a proposal to create school clusters and two new magnet schools

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By: Charles Woodall
Managing Broker

http://www.dothanhomesearch.com

The latest edition of the Consumer Focused Carnival of Real Estate is up at searchlightcrusade.net, and I am pleased as punch that our post relating five ways to generate a low ball offer was chosen for the Host’s Choice Award!

For those of you that do not know, a blog carnival brings together links to posts from the many blogs talking about a related in topic, which in this case is real estate. We are particularly proud to be chosen for work that is focused on consumers!

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By: Charles Woodall
Managing Broker

http://www.dothanhomesearch.com

Here is a summary of action taken at the May 21st meeting of the Dothan Planning Commission.

• Development plans were approved for a new Walgreens, to be built on the southeast corner of Montgomery Hwy and Westgate Parkway.
• 20+ acres adjacent to the Westgate Industrial Park was recommended to be rezoned to M-2 District, which would open it up for industrial development
• Recommended rezoning of 71+ acres on Woodham Road from agricultural to R-85-S, which is a residential zoning. Preliminary plans for Clearman Downs subdivision on this site were approved pending rezoning. Clearman Downs will consist of 171 lots and two parks totaling 2.5 acres.
• A couple of commercial buildings/centers were approved, one in the 2200 block of Hartford Highway and another in the 3000 block of Columbia Highway.

The past few months have been very light on activity brought in front of the commission. If memory serves, the Clearman Downs development is only the second new residential subdivision approved this year.

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By: Ann Bourland
Lending Edge Mortgage

http://www.lendingedge.net

From an email I received a couple of days ago-

Judge Lawrence K. Karlton of the United States District Court for the Eastern District of California upheld Nehemiah’s motion for summary judgment and invalidated the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) rule to ban private down payment assistance as proposed in the “Standards for Mortgagor’s Investment in Mortgaged Property” regulation published October 1, 2007.

To be clear, this rule cannot be enforced by HUD and is no longer a threat to private down payment assistance programs.

We are thrilled with the Court’s decision to support low-to-moderate income families across the country by ruling against HUD’s attempt to ban private down payment assistance,” said Scott Syphax, President and CEO of Nehemiah Corporation of America. This is a major and conclusive judgment, leaving no uncertainty that down payment assistance is a life line to the families that Nehemiah serves. It is heartening to see that the Court’s arguments echo our sentiments and concerns. This decision preserves access and supports the use of sensible and reasonable approaches to homeownership for millions of working class families. It is a privilege to continue providing a helping hand to America’s underserved families by building both safer communities and financial strength through homeownership. As we have said before, we look forward to working with HUD to support deserving families across the country.”

What does this mean for Dothan home buyers? It means no down payment options are still available. Give us a call and we’ll be happy to discuss your choices with you.

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Contact Ann Bourland or Kim Kennedy at Lending Edge Mortgage at (334) 836-0963 or by email at aborland(at)edgeloans(dot)com

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By: Charles Woodall
Managing Broker

http://www.dothanhomesearch.com

I posted earlier this week that the median home price in the Dothan area has fallen almost 9% (stats from the Dothan MLS) since the peak in the third quarter of 2006. According to Yale University economist Robert Shiller, home prices could fall a lot further.

Median price rose in the Dothan area about 30% between 2000 and 2006, so having to give some back when the market turns like it has is only logical. Only time will if ours have indeed bottomed out, or if the slide resumes.

My opinion is that Shiller’s outlook is far too pessimistic, for our market anyway. Too many good things happening around here right now.

Hat tip to RealCentralVA

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By: Charles Woodall
Managing Broker

http://www.dothanhomesearch.com

At the end of each quarter, we look at some Dothan real estate market statistics that don’t fit well into one of our monthly reports. That is not to diminish their importance however.

Median Price

Median price can vary significantly from month-to-month, so we compare quarters to help smooth out the bumps. Median price is used instead of average price because it reflects the midpoint, or the price where half the homes sold at a higher price and the other half sold at a lower price.

The median price from the Dothan MLS for the first quarter was just over $134,000, up from around $128,000 in the 4th quarter of 2007. From a peak in the third quarter of 2006, the median price of homes sold in Dothan is down 8.6%.

Absorption Rate

Absorption rate is a measure of how well the market is clearing, or absorbing, inventory (listings). The absorption rate for March was just over 10 months, down from nearly 12 months in January. In other words, if no more listings came on the market, it would take about 10 months to sell everything that is currently listed.

All signs recently seem to suggest that the Dothan real estate market is sound and active. Spring is typically a busy time, so hopefully these latest developments will continue move the market forward.

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By: Charles Woodall
Managing Broker

http://www.dothanhomesearch.com

Here’s some light reading to get your through the weekend. Read each article carefully as there will be a test on Monday.

Corp of Engineers proposed new water sharing plan for southeast - New York Times

Alabama House looks to lower speed limits across the state - Birmingham News via AL.com

The taxpayers of Alabama will have to deal with possible Birmingham bankruptcy - Mobile Press Register via AL.com

Tuscaloosa City Council moves to ban front yard parking - Tuscaloosa News

Alabama moves to fifth among auto making states - Birmingham News via AL.com

State tax on groceries going away? - Birmingham News via AL.com

Ready…Discuss.

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By: Judy Spears
Broker Associate, CRS, ABR, GRI, CNHS

http://www.judyspears.com

The agenda for this month’s Dothan Planning Commission was relatively short, with only a couple of items causing much discussion. The development of the next phase of Hidden Lake Subdivision was far and away the hottest topic of the day.

This development was originally brought to the Planning Commission in October, 2006, and was approved. Plans presented at that time included much green space, walking trails, and several small parks on the 167 acre site. The development never started because this was around the time the new construction market in Dothan softened.

Fast forward 18 months, and although the new home market is still soft, it is relatively steady. Because of the need to maximize their investment, the developers came back with new plans that eliminated 12 acres of open space and parks while adding 31 lots, bumping up the total number to 353. Residents living in the current Hidden Lakes feel they were mislead back in 2006. The new plans met all the requirements for approval, so the commission had little choice but to approve. The market wins.

Planning Department staff report on Hidden Lake development

There were several citizens attending concerned about a development in north Dothan that was on the agenda, only to be tabled. The area of the proposed subdivision is mostly rural, even though it is only a couple of miles outside of town. Developing a 71 acre parcel and putting over 200 houses on it, in an area that is predominately quiet and rural, will always bring a crowd. Should be an interesting meeting next month.

Planning Department staff report on proposed subdivision in north Dothan in the Headland Avenue, Woodham Road area.

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